What is the Problem of Induction?
The problem of induction can be stated as follows:
We can never prove something with absolute certainty unless we have all relevant subjects in our reach of study. But since we never know if we have all relevant subjects, how can we be sure of our results?
For example, I could argue that all swans are white because all swans observed in my backyard are white. But if I were to travel to Australia, I would find black swans. It would be true that all swans in my backyard are white, but it would be going beyond the data to say all swans everywhere are white.[1]
Any conclusion we make will “invariably go beyond the finite amount of observable evidence that is available to support them, and that is why they can never be proven in the sense of being logically deduced from that evidence.”[2]
Therefore, ultimately science cannot tell us what is certain but only what is probable.
Science (induction) therefore is “fallible, ever subject to revision, and always characterized as ‘probable’ in varying degrees.”[3]
These problems are so real that people have had to figure out ways for science to progress despite these serious limitations. Three significant people have proposed solutions: Karl Popper (1902-1994), Thomas Kuhn (1922-1996) and Imre Lakatos (1922-1974).
Why is the problem of induction important? It illustrates there are limitations with science. This is relevant when exploring the creation debate.
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- This is called the Black Swan illustration.
- Alan F. Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? 4th ed. (Indianapolis/Cambridge: Hackett Publishing Company, Inc., 2013), 42, emphasis mine.
- William A. Wallace, The Modeling of Nature: Philosophy of Science and Philosophy of Nature in Synthesis (Washington, D.C.: The Catholic University of America Press, 1996), 233.